Sparta Praha 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Round - 2 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Sparta Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Praha register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hradec Králové in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 55% versus Hradec Králové 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.383 / defence 1.067 | Hradec Králové attack 0.737 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Sparta Praha games / 30 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 56% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 19%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Praha 80% | Hradec Králové 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 56% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Sparta Praha 1.65 / Hradec Králové 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.383 / def 1.067 | Hradec Králové attack 0.737 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hradec Králové xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 56% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.38x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.99
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.50
0.85
Hradec Králové xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.85 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 31 games, going 21W 6D 4L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (10W 13D 8L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 13W 2D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.23 PPG overall — Sparta Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.35 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 21W 6D 4L in their last 31 games (2.23 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 10W 13D 8L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.73 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 60%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sparta Praha) and 40% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sparta Praha's games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 40% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové finished level at 1-1 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 0.85 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.38 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 56% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 19%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.