Sparta Praha 3-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FK Jablonec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sparta Praha 0W, FK Jablonec 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus FK Jablonec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 59% | FK Jablonec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.51 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.365 / defence 0.816 | FK Jablonec attack 0.967 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.367. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Sparta Praha games / 49 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 68% | Draw 18% | FK Jablonec 14%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | FK Jablonec 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | FK Jablonec 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 68% | Draw 18% | FK Jablonec 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Sparta Praha 2.51 / FK Jablonec 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.365 / def 0.816 | FK Jablonec attack 0.967 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha 3 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 68% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Praha 0W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.97x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.55
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.59
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
8%
12.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
1%
88.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.08 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha's recent record stands at 33W 13D 8L from 54 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 11W 21D 22L across 54 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sparta Praha have managed 18W 6D 2L from 26 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 4W 9D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 33W 13D 8L in their last 54 games (2.07 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 11W 21D 22L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.31 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 65%, FK Jablonec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Praha's games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.51 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.82 against FK Jablonec attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 68% | Draw 18% | FK Jablonec 14%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 59%, FK Jablonec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.