Slovan Liberec 0-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zlin at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec host Zlin at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Czech Liga appearances (0.00 PPG).
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 0D 3L from 5 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Zlin's 1.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Zlin in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 20% versus Zlin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 20% | Zlin 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.10 xG and Zlin 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.551 / defence 1.440 | Zlin attack 1.020 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.232. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.551 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Slovan Liberec games / 5 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 23% | Draw 23% | Zlin 54%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 1.85. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Slovan Liberec 0% | Zlin 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 23% | Draw 23% | Zlin 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.10 / Zlin 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.551 / def 1.440 | Zlin attack 1.020 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Zlin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Zlin xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Zlin kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 23% chance of winning, Zlin a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Zlin in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.55) and Zlin's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
23%
4.36
23%
4.34
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.91
1.81
Zlin xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
26.63
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.81 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 0.20 PPG on a 0W 1D 4L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin's form line: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zlin are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Zlin in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Zlin have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Zlin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 20%, Zlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Slovan Liberec) and 80% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 60% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 80% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Zlin tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zlin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.10 xG and Zlin 1.81 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.55 / defence 1.44 against Zlin attack 1.02 / defence 1.53, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 23% | Draw 23% | Zlin 54%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 20%, Zlin 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovan Liberec conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.