Slovan Liberec 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Slovan Liberec welcome Plzen to Stadion u Nisy. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Czech Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 3.00 PPG return is 2.67 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 33% and Plzen 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slovan Liberec 33% | Plzen 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.85 xG and Plzen 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.643 / defence 1.515 | Plzen attack 0.950 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.362. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Slovan Liberec games / 3 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 16% | Draw 21% | Plzen 63%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Plzen 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Slovan Liberec 33% | Plzen 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 16% | Draw 21% | Plzen 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Slovan Liberec 0.85 / Plzen 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.643 / def 1.515 | Plzen attack 0.950 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Plzen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Plzen xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 16% chance of winning, Plzen a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D. Plzen (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
16%
6.39
21%
4.73
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.81
1.96
Plzen xG
6.39
16%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
2%
45.29
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.96 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 2.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Plzen have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Plzen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Slovan Liberec at 33%, Plzen at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Slovan Liberec and 100% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Slovan Liberec's games and 100% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 100% of Plzen's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Plzen tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Plzen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.85 xG and Plzen 1.96 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.64 / defence 1.51 against Plzen attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 16% | Draw 21% | Plzen 63%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 33%, Plzen 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovan Liberec conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.