Slovan Liberec 1-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Slovan Liberec, 0.80 for České Budějovice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Slovan Liberec 0W, České Budějovice 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus České Budějovice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 40% | České Budějovice 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.313 / defence 0.900 | České Budějovice attack 1.024 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.362. Slovan Liberec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Slovan Liberec games / 33 České Budějovice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 51% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | České Budějovice 3.85. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 50% | České Budějovice 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 51% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.83 / České Budějovice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.313 / def 0.900 | České Budějovice attack 1.024 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.25
České Budějovice xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 51% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Record (2 meetings): Slovan Liberec 0W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.31) and České Budějovice's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (1.02x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.37
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.08
1.25
České Budějovice xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
4%
23.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.25 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 7D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
České Budějovice's form line: 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.14 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 1W 6D 10L from 17 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.31 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.53 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 35%, České Budějovice 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Slovan Liberec) and 53% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 47% of games; České Budějovice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 53% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 53% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 1.25 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.31 / defence 0.90 against České Budějovice attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 51% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 40%, České Budějovice 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG, České Budějovice 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.