Slovácko 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees České Budějovice travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovácko 1.40 PPG, České Budějovice 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Slovácko, 1 for České Budějovice and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
České Budějovice trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 58% versus České Budějovice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 67% | České Budějovice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.38 xG and České Budějovice 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.841 / defence 1.005 | České Budějovice attack 0.935 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.356. Data: 46 Slovácko games / 46 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 38% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 33%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | České Budějovice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | České Budějovice 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 38% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Slovácko 1.38 / České Budějovice 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.841 / def 1.005 | České Budějovice attack 0.935 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.27
České Budějovice xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Slovácko 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovácko vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 38% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Slovácko and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Record (3 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.84x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.49
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.65
1.27
České Budějovice xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slovácko and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.27 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 9D 14L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (14W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 16W 2D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.23 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 25W 9D 14L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovácko's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.17 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and České Budějovice runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, České Budějovice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 48%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Slovácko) and 56% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; České Budějovice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slovácko's recent matches and 56% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Slovácko's matches and 56% of České Budějovice's.
Do Slovácko and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.38 xG and České Budějovice 1.27 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against České Budějovice attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 38% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 33%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 67%, České Budějovice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.