Slovácko 4-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees České Budějovice travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovácko haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. České Budějovice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovácko 1.10 PPG, České Budějovice 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Slovácko, 1 for České Budějovice and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Slovácko winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
České Budějovice trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 47% versus České Budějovice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 47% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.71 xG and České Budějovice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.909 / defence 0.868 | České Budějovice attack 0.945 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.158. Data: 30 Slovácko games / 30 České Budějovice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 55% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 21%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | České Budějovice 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 30% | České Budějovice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 55% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Slovácko 1.71 / České Budějovice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.909 / def 0.868 | České Budějovice attack 0.945 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.95
České Budějovice xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Slovácko 4 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovácko vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 55% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slovácko and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Record (4 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.91x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.18
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.66
0.95
České Budějovice xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
26.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Slovácko and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.95 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 9D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. Slovácko haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (11W 5D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. České Budějovice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.41 PPG, České Budějovice on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 7W 5D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.19 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Pre-Season
České Budějovice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 9D 11L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 11W 5D 16L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.62 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Slovácko or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and České Budějovice runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, České Budějovice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 44%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovácko) and 62% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; České Budějovice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Slovácko's recent matches and 56% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovácko's recent games and 62% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 4-1 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat České Budějovice 4-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.71 xG and České Budějovice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against České Budějovice attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 55% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 21%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 47%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
České Budějovice's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.41 PPG, České Budějovice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.