Slavia Praha 2-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Plzen travel to Sinobo Stadium to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sinobo Stadium, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L this season (5 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slavia Praha 2.30 PPG, Plzen 2.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Plzen trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 58% versus Plzen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 67% | Plzen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.45 xG and Plzen 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.341 / defence 0.863 | Plzen attack 0.749 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.276. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Slavia Praha games / 12 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 27% | Plzen 21%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 4.76. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 60% | Plzen 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 27% | Plzen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Slavia Praha 1.45 / Plzen 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.341 / def 0.863 | Plzen attack 0.749 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Plzen xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 2 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 52% chance of winning, Plzen a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.34x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.74
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Plzen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.82 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 9W 2D 1L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 11W 0D 1L from 12 games, 2.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slavia Praha on 2.42 PPG, Plzen on 2.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.42 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.92 scored and 0.67 conceded. Slavia Praha's scoring rate against Plzen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Plzen in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 9W 2D 1L in their last 12 games (2.42 PPG), while Plzen have gone 11W 0D 1L in their last 12 (2.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Plzen in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 60%, Plzen 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Slavia Praha) and 20% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Plzen in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 20% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 20% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Plzen in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 2-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.45 xG and Plzen 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plzen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.86 against Plzen attack 0.75 / defence 0.81, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 27% | Plzen 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 67%, Plzen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slavia Praha 2.42 PPG, Plzen 2.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slavia Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.