Slavia Praha 2-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sinobo Stadium plays host to Slavia Praha versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Sinobo Stadium this season: 8W 0D 0L from 8 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Slavia Praha's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Mlada Boleslav's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 41% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 65% | Mlada Boleslav 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.93 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.452 / defence 0.703 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.666 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.304. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Slavia Praha games / 17 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 69% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 11%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Mlada Boleslav 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 38% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 69% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 39% | xG Slavia Praha 1.93 / Mlada Boleslav 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.452 / def 0.703 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.666 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Mlada Boleslav xG
39%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha 2 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 69% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.45) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.67x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
69%
1.45
20%
4.93
11%
9.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.54
0.61
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
9.22
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
37%
2.67
2%
63.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.61 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha come into this having played 17 games, going 14W 2D 1L for 2.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (7W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Slavia Praha's home form reads 8W 0D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.59 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.65 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 14W 2D 1L in their last 17 games (2.59 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 2D 8L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slavia Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 4-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 88% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 38%, Mlada Boleslav 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Slavia Praha) and 38% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Slavia Praha's matches and 38% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.93 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.61 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.45 / defence 0.70 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.67 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 69% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 11%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 65%, Mlada Boleslav 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.