Slavia Praha 2-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slavia Praha face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slavia Praha at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) — Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Slavia Praha, 0 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Slavia Praha 1–0 Mlada Boleslav — a Slavia Praha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 50% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | Mlada Boleslav 58%). Note also that Mlada Boleslav surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Slavia Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.34 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.117 / defence 0.848 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.274 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.226. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slavia Praha's projected output up. Mlada Boleslav have an above-average attack rating of 1.274, which lifts their away xG to 1.32. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 46 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 46.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 19% | Mlada Boleslav 21%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.67 | Draw 5.19 | Mlada Boleslav 4.83. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.34 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 60% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 19% | Mlada Boleslav 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Slavia Praha 2.34 / Mlada Boleslav 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.117 / def 0.848 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.274 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Mlada Boleslav xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha 2 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 60% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.12) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.27x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 46 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.19
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.66
1.32
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
10%
10.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
2%
50.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.32 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha come into this having played 48 games, going 34W 9D 5L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (17W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Slavia Praha's home form reads 21W 2D 1L across their last 24 home games, a 2.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Slavia Praha (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 34W 9D 5L in their last 48 games (2.31 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.71 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 8, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Slavia Praha 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 50%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Slavia Praha and 62% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Slavia Praha's matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 75% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.34 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.32 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.27 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 19% | Mlada Boleslav 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, Mlada Boleslav 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.