Slavia Praha 4-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 40%, yet in-form Slavia Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Sinobo Stadium to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Czech Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.25 PPG. Last five: L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.75 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 2.25. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slavia Praha 33% and Baník Ostrava 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slavia Praha 33% | Baník Ostrava 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.26 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 0.933 / defence 1.150 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.938 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.280. Data: 3 Slavia Praha games / 4 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 34% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 40%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slavia Praha (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 33% | Baník Ostrava 75%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 34% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Slavia Praha 1.26 / Baník Ostrava 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 0.933 / def 1.150 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.938 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha 4 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 34% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.83
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.64
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.38 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 0L record — W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slavia Praha on 3.00 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 3.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Slavia Praha's scoring rate against Baník Ostrava's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 100%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Baník Ostrava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Slavia Praha at 33%, Baník Ostrava at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Slavia Praha and 100% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Slavia Praha's games and 100% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Slavia Praha's matches and 100% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 4-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.26 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 34% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 40%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Slavia Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 33%, Baník Ostrava 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slavia Praha 3.00 PPG, Baník Ostrava 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slavia Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Slavia Praha scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava managed 0 against a 3.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.