Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Andrův stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.30 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Sparta Praha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 50% | Sparta Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.998 / defence 1.209 | Sparta Praha attack 1.526 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Sigma Olomouc games / 60 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 17% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 62%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | Sparta Praha 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Sparta Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 17% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.17 / Sparta Praha 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.998 / def 1.209 | Sparta Praha attack 1.526 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Sparta Praha xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 17% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.00) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.53x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.31.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
17%
5.82
21%
4.74
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.48
2.31
Sparta Praha xG
5.82
17%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
10%
10.04
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
2%
58.43
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 2.31 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 22D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.16 PPG from 64 outings (41W 15D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 12W 12D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.94 points per game from 32 outings (18W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.17 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 22D 21L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 41W 15D 8L in their last 64 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.50 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 56%, Sparta Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sigma Olomouc) and 59% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 59% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 0-1 at Andrův stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 2.31 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Sparta Praha attack 1.53 / defence 0.70, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 17% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 62%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 50%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.