Sigma Olomouc 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc at Andrův stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andrův stadion.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 0 for Slovan Liberec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 38% versus Slovan Liberec 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 40% | Slovan Liberec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.795 / defence 1.025 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.016 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.392. Sigma Olomouc's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Sigma Olomouc games / 35 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 43%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.14 / Slovan Liberec 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.795 / def 1.025 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.016 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Slovan Liberec xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.80) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.02x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.58
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
Slovan Liberec xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.45 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 16L across 37 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.27 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 6W 7D 5L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.39 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 44%, Slovan Liberec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sigma Olomouc) and 50% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 28% of games; Slovan Liberec in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 56% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 50% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 29% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 43%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 40%, Slovan Liberec 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.19 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.