Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sigma Olomouc face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andrův stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.50 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Plzen 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 69% and Plzen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 63% | Plzen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG and Plzen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.997 / defence 1.251 | Plzen attack 1.117 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.183. Data: 49 Sigma Olomouc games / 49 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 28% | Draw 25% | Plzen 47%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Plzen 2.13. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 90% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 28% | Draw 25% | Plzen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.22 / Plzen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.997 / def 1.251 | Plzen attack 1.117 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Plzen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 February 2025 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 28% chance of winning, Plzen a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Record (5 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 1 | Plzen 3W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Plzen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.00x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
28%
3.55
25%
4.07
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.88
1.65
Plzen xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
5%
18.56
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.65 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 12D 22L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 33W 10D 8L from 51 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 14W 6D 5L from 25 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.16 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Plzen have gone 33W 10D 8L in their last 51 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.44 PPG; Plzen away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 68%, Plzen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sigma Olomouc and 60% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 60% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 60% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Plzen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Plzen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Plzen 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG and Plzen 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 28% | Draw 25% | Plzen 47%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 63%, Plzen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.