Sigma Olomouc 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andrův stadion in Czech Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 17 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Plzen have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.60 (Plzen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 70% of Plzen's (from Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Plzen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Plzen — a Plzen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 58% and Plzen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Plzen 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sigma Olomouc surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.956 / defence 1.031 | Plzen attack 1.412 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.170. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.412, which lifts their away xG to 1.70. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 47 games and Plzen's last 47.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 24% | Plzen 46%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.29 | Draw 4.22 | Plzen 2.18. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 60% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 24% | Plzen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.34 / Plzen 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.956 / def 1.031 | Plzen attack 1.412 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Plzen xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 30% chance of winning, Plzen a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.96x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 47 games and Plzen's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.22
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.05
1.70
Plzen xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.70 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 20W 16D 16L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 28W 9D 15L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.46 PPG, Plzen on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 25 home games (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 12W 5D 8L from their last 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 63%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Plzen have gone 28W 9D 15L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.48 PPG; Plzen away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 64%, Plzen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sigma Olomouc and 64% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 64% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 64% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 84% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.70 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Plzen attack 1.41 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 24% | Plzen 46%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Plzen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.46 PPG, Plzen 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.