Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andrův stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 3W 4D 2L at Andrův stadion — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Mlada Boleslav 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 50% | Mlada Boleslav 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.912 / defence 1.185 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.681 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.294. Data: 20 Sigma Olomouc games / 20 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 33%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Mlada Boleslav 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 56% | Mlada Boleslav 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.14 / Mlada Boleslav 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.912 / def 1.185 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.681 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mlada Boleslav xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.68x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.42
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.04 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 5W 7D 8L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 8W 2D 10L from 20 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 8W 2D 10L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.44 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 56%, Mlada Boleslav 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sigma Olomouc) and 22% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 33%; Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 33% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 22% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Mlada Boleslav 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 33%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 50%, Mlada Boleslav 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.10 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.