Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 48%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 43% versus Hradec Králové 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 50% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.84 xG and Hradec Králové 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.026 / defence 1.246 | Hradec Králové attack 0.886 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.287. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Sigma Olomouc games / 14 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 48% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Hradec Králové 3.33. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Hradec Králové 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 48% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.84 / Hradec Králové 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.026 / def 1.246 | Hradec Králové attack 0.886 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hradec Králové xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 48% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.42
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.26
1.42
Hradec Králové xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.42 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 4L across 14 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.83 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sigma Olomouc and 67% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 67% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 15, as Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.84 xG and Hradec Králové 1.42 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 1.25 against Hradec Králové attack 0.89 / defence 1.37, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 48% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 30%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 50%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.