Sigma Olomouc 3-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 2D 4L at Andrův stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, FK Jablonec have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.40 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 46% versus FK Jablonec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 44% | FK Jablonec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.68 xG and FK Jablonec 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.971 / defence 0.948 | FK Jablonec attack 0.849 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.414. Data: 44 Sigma Olomouc games / 44 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 4.35. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.68 / FK Jablonec 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.971 / def 0.948 | FK Jablonec attack 0.849 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FK Jablonec xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.85x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.38
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.82
1.14
FK Jablonec xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
4%
23.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.14 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 16W 14D 18L from 48 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 9W 20D 19L across 48 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.98 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 9W 8D 6L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 3W 9D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 14D 18L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 9W 20D 19L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.52 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, FK Jablonec 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sigma Olomouc) and 44% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 48% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 44% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.68 xG and FK Jablonec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against FK Jablonec attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 44%, FK Jablonec 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.