Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 2D 3L at Andruv stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.70 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 4W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | FK Jablonec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG and FK Jablonec 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.105 / defence 1.001 | FK Jablonec attack 0.877 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Data: 41 Sigma Olomouc games / 40 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 29%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | FK Jablonec 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.29 / FK Jablonec 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.105 / def 1.001 | FK Jablonec attack 0.877 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FK Jablonec xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 4W | Draws 4 | FK Jablonec 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.88x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.52
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.32
1.02
FK Jablonec xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.02 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 9D 15L from 45 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 15L across 45 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.60 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 10W 1D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.86 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Sigma Olomouc) and 23% (FK Jablonec) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sigma Olomouc) and 32% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 41%; FK Jablonec in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 23% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 32% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.