Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.90 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 48% versus Bohemians 1905 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 48% | Bohemians 1905 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.872 / defence 1.070 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.633 / defence 1.557. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.186. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.557 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Sigma Olomouc games / 23 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 19%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.57 / Bohemians 1905 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.872 / def 1.070 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.633 / def 1.557 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 55% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.87) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.63x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
55%
1.80
25%
3.94
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.37
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.80 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 8D 9L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (6W 3D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.91 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 4W 5D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.36 points per game from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.22 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 3D 14L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 54%, Bohemians 1905 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sigma Olomouc and 73% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 27% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 73% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 0-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.63 / defence 1.56, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 48%, Bohemians 1905 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.13 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.