Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.80 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 54% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Bohemians 1905 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.67 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.191 / defence 1.007 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.040 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 36 Sigma Olomouc games / 35 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 33%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.67 / Bohemians 1905 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.191 / def 1.007 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.040 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Bohemians 1905 xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 4W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.19) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.04x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.22
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.10
1.43
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.43 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 7D 14L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (12W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.22 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 7D 14L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.82 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 3-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 41%, Bohemians 1905 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sigma Olomouc) and 41% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 3-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.67 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.43 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 33%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Bohemians 1905 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.49 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.