Plzen 0-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Doosan Arena to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 2D 2L at Doosan Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zlin have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Plzen, 1.56 for Zlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Plzen, who have won 6 of the last 6 meetings against Zlin — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 67% and Zlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 44% | Zlin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.52 xG and Zlin 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.066 / defence 0.869 | Zlin attack 0.900 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.242. Data: 39 Plzen games / 9 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 30% | Zlin 22%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 4.55. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 30% | Zlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Plzen 1.52 / Zlin 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.066 / def 0.869 | Zlin attack 0.900 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Zlin kick off?
Plzen vs Zlin kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Plzen 0 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Plzen vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Zlin part of?
Plzen vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 48% chance of winning, Zlin a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
Record (6 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Plzen and Zlin in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.90x) against Plzen's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.32
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.49
0.97
Zlin xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
20.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Plzen and 0.97 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 4W 3D 2L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Plzen against 1.56 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Zlin in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Zlin in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Zlin have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zlin away?
Plzen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Plzen
0
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Zlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Plzen 3-2 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zlin?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 75%, Zlin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Plzen) and 50% (Zlin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Plzen's games and 50% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Plzen's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Zlin tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zlin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Plzen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.52 xG and Zlin 0.97 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 30% | Zlin 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 44%, Zlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.67 PPG, Zlin 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.