Plzen 3-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Round - 3 as Plzen welcome Sparta Praha to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 8W 2D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Plzen) versus 2.00 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Plzen's 30% rate and Sparta Praha's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 47% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 47% | Sparta Praha 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.50 xG and Sparta Praha 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.218 / defence 0.849 | Sparta Praha attack 1.037 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Plzen games / 30 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 50% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 24%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 4.17. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 30% | Sparta Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 50% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Plzen 1.50 / Sparta Praha 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.218 / def 0.849 | Sparta Praha attack 1.037 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Plzen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sparta Praha xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Plzen 3 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sparta Praha part of?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 50% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plzen and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.22) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.75
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.46
0.96
Sparta Praha xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Plzen and 0.96 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 23W 7D 2L from 32 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 21W 7D 4L across 32 games — 2.19 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.38 PPG, Sparta Praha on 2.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 13W 2D 0L from 15 games — 2.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.16 scored and 1.06 conceded. Sparta Praha's attacking output running into Plzen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 23W 7D 2L in their last 32 games (2.38 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 21W 7D 4L in their last 32 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sparta Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.73 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
3
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 47%, Sparta Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Plzen and 60% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 33%; Sparta Praha in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Plzen's recent matches and 47% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Plzen's matches and 60% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Plzen and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sparta Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sparta Praha 3-0 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.50 xG and Sparta Praha 0.96 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.22 / defence 0.85 against Sparta Praha attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 50% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 24%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 47%, Sparta Praha 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.38 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.