Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Plzen (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slovan Liberec at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Plzen haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 7W 2D 1L at Doosan Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovan Liberec haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Slovan Liberec, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 43% versus Slovan Liberec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 51% | Slovan Liberec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.013 / defence 0.968 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.017 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Plzen games / 30 Slovan Liberec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Plzen 42% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 40% | Slovan Liberec 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 42% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Plzen 1.43 / Slovan Liberec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.013 / def 0.968 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.017 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Plzen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Plzen 1 - 3 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 42% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plzen and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Record (9 meetings): Plzen 5W | Draws 2 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Plzen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.01) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.63
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.61
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Plzen and 1.19 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 18W 9D 8L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. Plzen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Slovan Liberec's form line: 12W 10D 13L from 35 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.29 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Pre-Season
Slovan Liberec
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Plzen's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.94 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
2
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, Slovan Liberec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Plzen) and 56% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plzen's recent matches and 56% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Plzen's recent games and 56% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Plzen 1-3 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 42% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 51%, Slovan Liberec 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.