Plzen 4-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slovácko have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Slovácko's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plzen, 2 for Slovácko and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Slovácko — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 59% versus Slovácko 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 65% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.11 xG and Slovácko 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.274 / defence 0.790 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 62% | Draw 22% | Slovácko 16%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Slovácko 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 30% | Slovácko 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 62% | Draw 22% | Slovácko 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 2.11 / Slovácko 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.274 / def 0.790 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Plzen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Slovácko xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovácko kick off?
Plzen vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Plzen 4 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Plzen vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovácko part of?
Plzen vs Slovácko is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 62% chance of winning, Slovácko a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
Record (5 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 2 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.98x) against Plzen's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.55
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.11
0.99
Slovácko xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
2%
52.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Plzen and 0.99 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plzen come into this having played 66 games, going 38W 12D 16L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.38 PPG from 66 outings (24W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plzen's home form reads 20W 5D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.21 points per game from 33 outings (10W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.23 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 38W 12D 16L in their last 66 games (1.91 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovácko away?
Plzen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.97 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slovácko in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 3-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Plzen
3
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 3, Slovácko have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Slovácko 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 54%, Slovácko 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Plzen and 52% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovácko in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plzen's recent matches and 52% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plzen's matches and 52% of Slovácko's.
Do Plzen and Slovácko tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovácko 4-2 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.11 xG and Slovácko 0.99 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.79 against Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 62% | Draw 22% | Slovácko 16%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 65%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.