Plzen 2-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 9W 1D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plzen, 0 for Mlada Boleslav and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 46% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 50% | Mlada Boleslav 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.59 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.248 / defence 0.689 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.124 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.359. Plzen's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Plzen games / 40 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 23%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Mlada Boleslav 4.35. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Mlada Boleslav 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Plzen 1.59 / Mlada Boleslav 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.248 / def 0.689 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.124 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 2 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 47% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (1 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.34
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.64
1.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Plzen and 1.05 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 44 games, going 33W 9D 2L for 2.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (17W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 19W 2D 0L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.55 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 33W 9D 2L in their last 44 games (2.45 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Plzen's home record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.81 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Plzen or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 43%, Mlada Boleslav 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 57% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Plzen's recent matches and 57% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 57% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Plzen and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.59 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.25 / defence 0.69 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.12 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 47% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 23%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.