Pardubice vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Arnosta Kostala — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Pardubice have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 71% and Zlin 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Zlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.64 xG and Zlin 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.819 / defence 1.103 | Zlin attack 1.040 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Pardubice games / 36 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 23% | Zlin 37%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 23% | Zlin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Pardubice 1.64 / Zlin 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.819 / def 1.103 | Zlin attack 1.040 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Zlin xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 40% chance of winning, Zlin a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 3 | Zlin 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.82x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
40%
2.50
23%
4.27
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.20
1.56
Zlin xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.56 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.89 PPG from 38 outings (9W 7D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.18 PPG, Zlin on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.56 points per game from 18 outings (2W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.13 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 7D 22L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.17 PPG; Zlin away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 72%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pardubice) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Pardubice's games and 56% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zlin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.