Pardubice 1-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Zlin travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 5W 2D 3L at CFIG Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 1.20 PPG versus Zlin's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pardubice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 1, Zlin 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 54% versus Zlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Zlin 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.89 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.936 / defence 0.922 | Zlin attack 0.820 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 60 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 58% | Draw 25% | Zlin 17%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Zlin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Pardubice (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 60% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 58% | Draw 25% | Zlin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Pardubice 1.89 / Zlin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.936 / def 0.922 | Zlin attack 0.820 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zlin xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 1 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 58% chance of winning, Zlin a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (4 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 1 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.94x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.06
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.83
0.95
Zlin xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
38.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.95 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 67 games, going 18W 14D 35L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.94 PPG from 67 outings (14W 21D 32L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.01 PPG, Zlin on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 9W 11D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.59 points per game from 32 outings (2W 13D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.22 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 64%.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 18W 14D 35L in their last 67 games (1.01 PPG), while Zlin have gone 14W 21D 32L in their last 67 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.19 PPG; Zlin away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 47%, Zlin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pardubice) and 56% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 38% of games; Zlin in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pardubice's recent matches and 62% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pardubice's recent games and 56% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zlin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Pardubice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Pardubice 1-2 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.89 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Zlin outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Zlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 58% | Draw 25% | Zlin 17%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 55%, Zlin 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.01 PPG, Zlin 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.