Pardubice 2-4 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 1W 3D 1L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.70 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pardubice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sparta Praha in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 70% and Sparta Praha 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 70% | Sparta Praha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.56 xG and Sparta Praha 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.944 / defence 1.176 | Sparta Praha attack 1.304 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.347. Sparta Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Pardubice games / 10 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 50%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | Sparta Praha 2.00. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 60% | Sparta Praha 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Pardubice 1.56 / Sparta Praha 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.944 / def 1.176 | Sparta Praha attack 1.304 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Sparta Praha xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Pardubice 2 - 4 Sparta Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Pardubice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.30x) against Pardubice's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
29%
3.42
21%
4.71
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.62
2.06
Sparta Praha xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
4%
26.98
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Pardubice and 2.06 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 3D 6L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.25 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-2 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
9
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Sparta Praha 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pardubice and 75% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pardubice's games and 75% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pardubice's matches and 75% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Pardubice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 2-4 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.56 xG and Sparta Praha 2.06 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 2.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Sparta Praha attack 1.30 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 50%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 70%, Sparta Praha 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.