Pardubice 1-5 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Pardubice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 1W 4D 3L at Stadion Ďolíček — 0.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Pardubice, 0.80 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pardubice lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 2–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 67% versus Sigma Olomouc 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 67% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.05 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.761 / defence 1.491 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.678 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.280. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Pardubice games / 15 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 42%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 50% | Sigma Olomouc 38% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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