Pardubice 0-0 Příbram – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Příbram encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus Příbram in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 4 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pardubice at CFIG Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Příbram's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Příbram have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Pardubice's 1.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Příbram's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pardubice 1W, Příbram 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.80 xG and Příbram 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.937 / defence 0.929 | Příbram attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 0 Příbram games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | Příbram 19%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Příbram 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pardubice (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Příbram | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | Příbram 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Pardubice 1.80 / Příbram 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.937 / def 0.929 | Příbram attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Příbram xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Příbram kick off?
Pardubice vs Příbram kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Příbram?
Pardubice 0 - 0 Příbram.
Where is Pardubice vs Příbram being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Příbram part of?
Pardubice vs Příbram is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Příbram?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 55% chance of winning, Příbram a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Příbram?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pardubice and Příbram will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Příbram have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Příbram?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 0 | Příbram 0W.
What form are Pardubice and Příbram in?
Pardubice (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Příbram (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.94) and Příbram's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Příbram's attack (0.85x) against Pardubice's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.89
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.79
0.99
Příbram xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
31.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Příbram?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Příbram expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.99 for Příbram, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Příbram?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Pardubice have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Příbram's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Příbram, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pardubice are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Příbram.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Příbram are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Příbram in 0%.
Defensively: Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Příbram
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Příbram in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Příbram have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Pardubice or Příbram been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Příbram in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pardubice
1
Draws
0
Příbram
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Příbram?
From 2 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Příbram have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Příbram last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Pardubice 0-0 Příbram.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Příbram?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Příbram away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Příbram?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pardubice's recent matches and 0% of Příbram's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Příbram usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pardubice's recent games and 0% of Příbram's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Příbram tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Příbram in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Příbram finished level at 0-0 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.80 xG and Příbram 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Příbram landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Příbram attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | Příbram 19%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 0%, Příbram 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pardubice managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Příbram conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.