Pardubice 1-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pardubice take on Dukla Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Pardubice welcome Dukla Praha to Stadion Arnosta Kostala. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pardubice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Arnosta Kostala: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Arnosta Kostala than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 1.10 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Dukla Praha have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Pardubice.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Dukla Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Dukla Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 46% | Dukla Praha 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.16 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.966 / defence 1.159 | Dukla Praha attack 0.737 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.149. Data: 43 Pardubice games / 43 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 36% | Draw 38% | Dukla Praha 27%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Dukla Praha 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 70% | Dukla Praha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 36% | Draw 38% | Dukla Praha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Pardubice 1.16 / Dukla Praha 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.966 / def 1.159 | Dukla Praha attack 0.737 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dukla Praha xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 36% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pardubice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Dukla Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Dukla Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.97) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
38%
2.67
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.14
0.98
Dukla Praha xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.98 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 50 games, going 9W 12D 29L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dukla Praha sit at 0.94 PPG from 50 outings (10W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 0.78 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dukla Praha have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (3W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.88 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 9W 12D 29L in their last 50 games (0.78 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 10W 17D 23L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Pardubice's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Pardubice
1
Draws
3
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Dukla Praha?
From 5 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Dukla Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Dukla Praha?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Dukla Praha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pardubice) and 40% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 32%; Pardubice have failed to score in 36% of games; Dukla Praha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Pardubice's recent matches and 44% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pardubice's recent games and 40% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Dukla Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.16 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Dukla Praha attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 36% | Draw 38% | Dukla Praha 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 46%, Dukla Praha 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.78 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.