Pardubice 0-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pardubice at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pardubice face Dukla Praha.

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Fixture Analysis

Pardubice welcome Dukla Praha to CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Pardubice — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Pardubice's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pardubice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dukla Praha stand at 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 0.50 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pardubice have won 0, Dukla Praha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Pardubice 1–2 Dukla Praha — a Dukla Praha win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Pardubice in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.

Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 36% versus Dukla Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Dukla Praha 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.05 xG and Dukla Praha 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.678 / defence 1.056 | Dukla Praha attack 0.625 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.141. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.625 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Pardubice's last 55 games and Dukla Praha's last 25.

Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 24%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.52 | Draw 2.72 | Dukla Praha 4.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 50% (last 10 away games).

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