Mlada Boleslav 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Mlada Boleslav's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–2 FK Jablonec — a FK Jablonec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 56% versus FK Jablonec 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 61% | FK Jablonec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.885 / defence 1.084 | FK Jablonec attack 0.993 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 59 games and FK Jablonec's last 59.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 38%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.00 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.21 / FK Jablonec 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.885 / def 1.084 | FK Jablonec attack 0.993 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 33% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.99x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 59 games and FK Jablonec's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.45
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.51
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.30 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 15D 27L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.39 PPG from 64 outings (23W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.39 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 13W 6D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.42 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 15D 27L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or FK Jablonec away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.45 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec on 28 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: FK Jablonec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 58%, FK Jablonec 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Mlada Boleslav) and 42% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; FK Jablonec in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 45% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 42% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 68% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Mlada Boleslav 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against FK Jablonec attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 38%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, FK Jablonec 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.27 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.