Karviná 1-0 Vyškov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vyškov at 39%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs Vyškov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round sees Vyškov travel to Městský Stadión to take on Karviná. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Městský Stadión this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský Stadión this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Vyškov have recorded 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Vyškov have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Karviná have the edge — a 1.27 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Karviná have won 1, Vyškov 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Karviná winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Karviná in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vyškov in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Karviná 0% | Vyškov 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karviná 33% | Vyškov 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.17 xG and Vyškov 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.664 / defence 1.217 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.290. Karviná's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Karviná games / 0 Vyškov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 39%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Vyškov 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vyškov are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vyškov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Karviná 40% | Vyškov 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Vyškov | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Karviná 1.17 / Vyškov 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.664 / def 1.217 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Vyškov (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Vyškov xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Vyškov kick off?
Karviná vs Vyškov kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Vyškov?
Karviná 1 - 0 Vyškov.
Where is Karviná vs Vyškov being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Vyškov part of?
Karviná vs Vyškov is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Vyškov?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 31% chance of winning, Vyškov a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vyškov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Vyškov?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Karviná and Vyškov will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Vyškov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Vyškov?
Record (1 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 0 | Vyškov 0W.
What form are Karviná and Vyškov in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Vyškov (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.66x the league average against Vyškov's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vyškov's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vyškov Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.40
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.50
1.33
Vyškov xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Vyškov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Vyškov expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Karviná and 1.33 for Vyškov, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Vyškov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Karviná have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vyškov's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Vyškov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Karviná are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vyškov.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vyškov are on 0.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Vyškov in 0%.
Defensively: Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Vyškov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Vyškov in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Vyškov have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Karviná or Vyškov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Vyškov in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Karviná
0
Draws
0
Vyškov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Vyškov?
From 2 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Vyškov have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Vyškov last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Karviná 1-0 Vyškov.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Vyškov?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Vyškov see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Karviná 0% BTTS, Vyškov 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Karviná and 0% for Vyškov.
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vyškov in 33%; Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games; Vyškov in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Vyškov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Vyškov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Karviná's recent matches and 0% of Vyškov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Vyškov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Karviná's recent games and 0% of Vyškov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Vyškov tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vyškov in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Vyškov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Vyškov 1-0 at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.17 xG and Vyškov 1.33 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vyškov landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.66 / defence 1.22 against Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 39%, with Vyškov to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 33%, Vyškov 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vyškov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.