Hradec Králové 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 43%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Plzen meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Plzen arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Plzen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Plzen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 46% | Plzen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.47 xG and Plzen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.011 / defence 0.878 | Plzen attack 1.071 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.297. Data: 32 Hradec Králové games / 32 Plzen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 43% | Draw 26% | Plzen 31%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 43% | Draw 26% | Plzen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Hradec Králové 1.47 / Plzen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.011 / def 0.878 | Plzen attack 1.071 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Plzen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Plzen kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Hradec Králové 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Plzen part of?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 43% chance of winning, Plzen a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hradec Králové and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (1.01) and Plzen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.07x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.90
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.69
1.22
Plzen xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.22 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 11W 14D 12L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 27W 8D 2L from 37 games, 2.41 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (8W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 6D 2L from 18 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.81 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 11W 14D 12L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Plzen have gone 27W 8D 2L in their last 37 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.72 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plzen in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Plzen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 56%, Plzen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 33% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Plzen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 44% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Plzen tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plzen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Hradec Králové 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.47 xG and Plzen 1.22 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Plzen attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 43% | Draw 26% | Plzen 31%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 46%, Plzen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.