Hradec Králové 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Plzen meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hradec Králové's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Plzen arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hradec Králové have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Plzen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 61% versus Plzen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 48% | Plzen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.11 xG and Plzen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.132 / defence 1.333 | Plzen attack 0.940 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 28% | Plzen 42%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 70% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 28% | Plzen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hradec Králové 1.11 / Plzen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.132 / def 1.333 | Plzen attack 0.940 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Plzen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Plzen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Plzen kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Hradec Králové 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Plzen part of?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 30% chance of winning, Plzen a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hradec Králové and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (1.13) and Plzen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (0.94x) against Hradec Králové's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.63
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.47
1.36
Plzen xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
12.88
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.36 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 10W 14D 9L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 24W 7D 2L from 33 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 9W 5D 2L from 16 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.82 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 10W 14D 9L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Plzen have gone 24W 7D 2L in their last 33 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.75 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plzen in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Plzen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 62%, Plzen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hradec Králové) and 31% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Plzen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 44% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 31% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Plzen tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Plzen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Championship Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.11 xG and Plzen 1.36 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 1.33 against Plzen attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 28% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 48%, Plzen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.