Hradec Králové 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host FK Jablonec at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.80 PPG, FK Jablonec 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
FK Jablonec have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Hradec Králové's 1 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 44% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 46% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.03 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.118 / defence 0.845 | FK Jablonec attack 1.027 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.289. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Hradec Králové games / 46 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 34% | FK Jablonec 35%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | FK Jablonec 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 34% | FK Jablonec 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Hradec Králové 1.03 / FK Jablonec 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.118 / def 0.845 | FK Jablonec attack 1.027 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FK Jablonec xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Hradec Králové 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec part of?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 31% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 3 | FK Jablonec 4W.
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.12x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
31%
3.24
34%
2.96
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.15
1.12
FK Jablonec xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.12 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 20W 12D 18L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 12L across 50 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 13W 4D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.62 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 12D 18L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
4
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 42%, FK Jablonec 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hradec Králové) and 42% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 42% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 42% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.03 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.69, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 34% | FK Jablonec 35%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 46%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.