Hradec Králové 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lokotrans Aréna plays host to Hradec Králové versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 3D 0L this season (6 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna.
Baník Ostrava have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Baník Ostrava 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.43 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.978 / defence 0.969 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.916 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.264. Data: 13 Hradec Králové games / 12 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | Baník Ostrava 50%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Hradec Králové 1.43 / Baník Ostrava 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.978 / def 0.969 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.916 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Baník Ostrava xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.98) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.92x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.80
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.55
1.12
Baník Ostrava xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.12 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hradec Králové come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 3D 4L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hradec Králové's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.20 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 40%, Baník Ostrava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hradec Králové) and 60% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 60% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 60% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava finished level at 1-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.43 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 30%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 50%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.