FK Jablonec 0-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FK Jablonec have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 5–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 54% versus Slovan Liberec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Slovan Liberec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.89 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.419 / defence 0.853 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.938 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.200. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 FK Jablonec games / 54 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 18%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Slovan Liberec 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 1.89 / Slovan Liberec 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.419 / def 0.853 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.938 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Slovan Liberec xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 58% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 3 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.42x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.94x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.18
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.85
0.96
Slovan Liberec xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
36.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.96 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 16D 19L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.23 PPG from 56 outings (17W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.23 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (4W 10D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.45 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 17W 18D 21L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovan Liberec away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.86 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.79 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-2 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 54%, Slovan Liberec 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FK Jablonec) and 46% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FK Jablonec's games and 61% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 46% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.89 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.96 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 18%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.41 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.