FK Jablonec 2-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 49% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 32% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.02 xG and Slavia Praha 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.779 / defence 1.154 | Slavia Praha attack 0.934 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.315. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 FK Jablonec games / 32 Slavia Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 27% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Slavia Praha 2.17. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Slavia Praha 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 27% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG FK Jablonec 1.02 / Slavia Praha 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.779 / def 1.154 | Slavia Praha attack 0.934 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Slavia Praha xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
FK Jablonec 2 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 27% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.78x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (0.93x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
27%
3.67
27%
3.74
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.44
1.42
Slavia Praha xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.42 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 37 games, going 6W 17D 14L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.19 PPG from 37 outings (25W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 3W 9D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.78 points per game from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.27 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 17D 14L in their last 37 games (0.95 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 25W 6D 6L in their last 37 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.00 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.78 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 29 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, Slavia Praha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 56% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out FK Jablonec 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 2-3 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.02 xG and Slavia Praha 1.42 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Slavia Praha attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 27% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 46%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 32%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.