FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FK Jablonec 3W, Mlada Boleslav 5W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 38% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.76 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.035 / defence 0.916 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.889 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 FK Jablonec games / 41 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 20%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Mlada Boleslav 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 80% | Mlada Boleslav 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.76 / Mlada Boleslav 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.035 / def 0.916 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.889 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 56% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 5W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.89x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.19
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.70
0.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
29.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.95 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 21W 9D 15L from 45 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 16L across 45 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.31 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 11W 7D 4L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.82 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 59%, Mlada Boleslav 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FK Jablonec) and 59% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 59% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.