FK Jablonec 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Dukla Praha travel to Stadion Strelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's home record at Stadion Strelnice: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FK Jablonec, 0 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Dukla Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Dukla Praha 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.66 xG and Dukla Praha 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.206 / defence 0.820 | Dukla Praha attack 0.796 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.164. Data: 41 FK Jablonec games / 41 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 14%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Dukla Praha 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Dukla Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG FK Jablonec 1.66 / Dukla Praha 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.206 / def 0.820 | Dukla Praha attack 0.796 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dukla Praha xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 56% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.21x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
56%
1.78
30%
3.36
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.42
0.76
Dukla Praha xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
37.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.76 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 26W 9D 11L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha's form line: 8W 16D 22L from 46 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 2.14 PPG from 22 outings (14W 5D 3L).
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 3W 8D 11L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.89 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 26W 9D 11L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 8W 16D 22L in their last 46 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Dukla Praha away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.14 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.77 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Dukla Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 41%, Dukla Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 46% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 50% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 46% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 12, as FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.66 xG and Dukla Praha 0.76 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.21 / defence 0.82 against Dukla Praha attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 14%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.