České Budějovice 0-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for České Budějovice, 0.80 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: České Budějovice 1W, Sigma Olomouc 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 58% versus Sigma Olomouc 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 55% | Sigma Olomouc 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.92 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.741 / defence 1.062 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.927 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.363. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 České Budějovice games / 38 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 23% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 44%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Sigma Olomouc 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 23% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG České Budějovice 0.92 / Sigma Olomouc 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.741 / def 1.062 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.927 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
České Budějovice 0 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 23% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
České Budějovice's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.93x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
23%
4.33
33%
3.02
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.27
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
6%
16.59
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.34 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 11D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (12W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.20 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
České Budějovice's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.23 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.55 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.10 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
1
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 55%, Sigma Olomouc 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (České Budějovice) and 40% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 30% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 30% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of České Budějovice's recent games and 40% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 0-3 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat České Budějovice 0-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.92 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 23% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 44%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 55%, Sigma Olomouc 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.10 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.