České Budějovice 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 6W 1D 2L from 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for České Budějovice, 0.90 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: České Budějovice 0W, Sigma Olomouc 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 65% versus Sigma Olomouc 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 65% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.122 / defence 1.131 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.936 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.304. Data: 17 České Budějovice games / 17 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 42% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 34%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Sigma Olomouc 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 67% | Sigma Olomouc 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 42% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG České Budějovice 1.56 / Sigma Olomouc 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.122 / def 1.131 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.936 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 42% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
České Budějovice's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.94x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.08
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.94
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.38 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 3D 8L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.24 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
České Budějovice's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.71 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
České Budějovice's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 2.11 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
1
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 67%, Sigma Olomouc 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (České Budějovice) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of České Budějovice's games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 42% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 34%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 65%, Sigma Olomouc 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.24 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.