České Budějovice 0-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Plzen (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as České Budějovice face Plzen.

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Fixture Analysis

České Budějovice welcome Plzen to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

České Budějovice — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

České Budějovice's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — České Budějovice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Plzen away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for České Budějovice.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended České Budějovice 0–5 Plzen — a Plzen win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

České Budějovice in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Plzen in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 59% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Plzen 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.01 xG and Plzen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.874 / defence 1.315 | Plzen attack 1.123 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.071. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plzen's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 34 games and Plzen's last 34.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 24% | Draw 25% | Plzen 51%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.11 | Draw 3.97 | Plzen 1.98. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 80% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 50% (last 10 away games).

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