České Budějovice 2-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for České Budějovice, 1.20 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: České Budějovice 3W, FK Jablonec 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–5 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 57% versus FK Jablonec 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 65% | FK Jablonec 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.044 / defence 1.059 | FK Jablonec attack 0.895 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 48% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 26%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 3.85. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 50% | FK Jablonec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 48% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG České Budějovice 1.73 / FK Jablonec 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.044 / def 1.059 | FK Jablonec attack 0.895 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FK Jablonec xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
České Budějovice 2 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec part of?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 48% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both České Budějovice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.04) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.90x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.86
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.95
1.22
FK Jablonec xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.22 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 18W 12D 35L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
FK Jablonec's form line: 18W 22D 25L from 65 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.17 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (14W 4D 14L). That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 8D 18L from 32 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.34 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 18W 12D 35L in their last 65 games (1.02 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 18W 22D 25L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or FK Jablonec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.44 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
2
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, FK Jablonec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (České Budějovice) and 53% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 34% of games; FK Jablonec in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 56% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of České Budějovice's matches and 53% of FK Jablonec's.
Do České Budějovice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round - 4, as České Budějovice and FK Jablonec drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 48% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 26%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 65%, FK Jablonec 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.02 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.