Dukla Praha 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Stadion Juliska to face Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dukla Praha have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Czech Liga appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Hradec Králové are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dukla Praha lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 50% versus Hradec Králové 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 56% | Hradec Králové 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.89 xG and Hradec Králové 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.766 / defence 1.216 | Hradec Králové attack 0.823 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.183. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hradec Králové's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Dukla Praha games / 48 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 41%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 56% | Hradec Králové 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Dukla Praha 0.89 / Hradec Králové 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.766 / def 1.216 | Hradec Králové attack 0.823 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hradec Králové xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Dukla Praha 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 26% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (1 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dukla Praha's attack at 0.77x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.82x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
26%
3.84
33%
3.05
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.07
1.18
Hradec Králové xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.9 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.18 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 3W 3D 12L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 6W 4D 8L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Dukla Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 0.83 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové in 22%.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 3W 3D 12L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.11 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 3-0 on 8 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 56% (Dukla Praha) and 11% (Hradec Králové) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dukla Praha) and 33% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 44%; Hradec Králové in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 11% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 33% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Dukla Praha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Dukla Praha 1-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.89 xG and Hradec Králové 1.18 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 56%, Hradec Králové 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.