Bohemians 1905 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Slovácko.

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Match Analysis

Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Bohemians 1905 — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Bohemians 1905 at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Slovácko have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 0 for Slovácko and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 0–0 Slovácko — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Slovácko trading profile (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 55% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 55% | Slovácko 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG and Slovácko 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.024 / defence 1.066 | Slovácko attack 0.869 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.224. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 33 games and Slovácko's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.32 | Draw 3.48 | Slovácko 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Bohemians 1905 33 games, Slovácko 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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