Bohemians 1905 0-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bohemians 1905, 0.90 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bohemians 1905 0W, Sigma Olomouc 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Sigma Olomouc 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 57% | Sigma Olomouc 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.77 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.172 / defence 0.967 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.988 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 50% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 4.17. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 50% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.77 / Sigma Olomouc 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.172 / def 0.967 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.988 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sigma Olomouc xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 50% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 1.17x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.99x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.85
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.19
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
4%
24.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.19 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 68 games, going 25W 15D 28L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.31 PPG from 68 outings (22W 23D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.31 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 13W 9D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.24 points per game from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 25W 15D 28L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 23D 23L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.45 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 58%, Sigma Olomouc 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 48% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 46% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.77 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.19 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 50% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 24%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 57%, Sigma Olomouc 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.32 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.